The good news is that there are 'buys' on our list this week. The bad news is that they are pretty heavy into the commodities. Number 1 on the buy list is Fidelity Select Gold (FSAGX). This is one time I'd have to say for certain to override the algorithm and steer clear. I don't like gold as an investment option, and I certainly don't like investing in paper which is invested in gold (like FSAGX). At least not when it is run up to historical levels. The time to buy gold is when it is low, not when it is out of the stratosphere.
Technology and international funds also seem to be doing well, so if you're in those, sit tight.
The funds in the GreenestEgg Portfolio (FSESX and FIVFX) are hanging on with hold ratings. They got whacked over the past few weeks, but had a nice uptick over the last couple days. Go Team!
The Value Score numbers are getting lower and lower. When a fund hits zero, that means the current price is running at about two standard deviations above its moving average over the past 14 months. In the past, this has signalled one of two events: either a massive rally or a crash. Which one is it going to be this time? Your guess is as good as mine. If you've had a good year, maybe it's time to consider taking some money off the table? Intermediate bonds, anyone?
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Thursday, November 12, 2009
The Great Repression
I was at the bank today and they had the TV turned on to CNN. Since I only have limited basic, I never get a chance to watch cable news. I really wish that I had cable at home so that I could be reminded every five minutes that we're in worst recession since the Great Depression. That's why I call the current economy The Great Repression.
I'm going to go off on a tangent. Are you ready? Here goes. If you were the CEO of Comerica Bank, why would you deliberately put a television in your lobby? First off, it distracts the tellers from doing their job, or worse, they spend the day watching CNN instead of working. Second, if a customer has to wait in line long enough that he/she needs to be entertained, then you've got more important problems to solve than how to amuse those in queue. And third, why choose CNN? The cable news stations only serve to increase blood pressure. So, in an effort to distract your customers from noticing poor service, you put on the two minute hate to get them irritated? Two words: what ehvah?
Back to mutual funds....No changes in Fidelity this week. All funds are 'sell' or 'hold.' Beware the commodities, and beware the market rally, in general. Unemployment is still very high, companies are barely recruiting off of college campuses, and the foreclosure fiasco won't peak until 2011. Aside from that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
I'm going to go off on a tangent. Are you ready? Here goes. If you were the CEO of Comerica Bank, why would you deliberately put a television in your lobby? First off, it distracts the tellers from doing their job, or worse, they spend the day watching CNN instead of working. Second, if a customer has to wait in line long enough that he/she needs to be entertained, then you've got more important problems to solve than how to amuse those in queue. And third, why choose CNN? The cable news stations only serve to increase blood pressure. So, in an effort to distract your customers from noticing poor service, you put on the two minute hate to get them irritated? Two words: what ehvah?
Back to mutual funds....No changes in Fidelity this week. All funds are 'sell' or 'hold.' Beware the commodities, and beware the market rally, in general. Unemployment is still very high, companies are barely recruiting off of college campuses, and the foreclosure fiasco won't peak until 2011. Aside from that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
A First!
I'm pretty sure this is a first. Today's list is the first time I've had a 'sell' signal for every single Fidelity mutual fund! That fact would be much more exciting if it didn't mean we were all losing money. Can you say, "Dow 8,000?"
Obamabucks are a-flowin'!
I don't know about your town, but in Ann Arbor, we've got stimulus money to burn. The great thing about Federal money is that it seems like it is used where it is least needed.
For example, the roads in Ann Arbor (and Michigan, in general) have got to be the worst in the nation. Potholes galore. Bridges in disrepair. Take my word for it, the roads around here are a mess. So, when we get our stimulus dollars, what are they earmarked for? A park and ride lot. That's right folks. We're spending millions of dollars to build a parking lot.
The great thing about this parking lot is that it is no more than half a mile away from another park and ride lot in town (which never fills up more than 80%). Before we get in too big of a hurry to spend our grandchildrens' tax dollars, maybe we should evaluate some of these projects at a local level to see if they actually make sense (or at least to prioritize).
Obamabucks are a-flowin'!
I don't know about your town, but in Ann Arbor, we've got stimulus money to burn. The great thing about Federal money is that it seems like it is used where it is least needed.
For example, the roads in Ann Arbor (and Michigan, in general) have got to be the worst in the nation. Potholes galore. Bridges in disrepair. Take my word for it, the roads around here are a mess. So, when we get our stimulus dollars, what are they earmarked for? A park and ride lot. That's right folks. We're spending millions of dollars to build a parking lot.
The great thing about this parking lot is that it is no more than half a mile away from another park and ride lot in town (which never fills up more than 80%). Before we get in too big of a hurry to spend our grandchildrens' tax dollars, maybe we should evaluate some of these projects at a local level to see if they actually make sense (or at least to prioritize).
Monday, November 2, 2009
Damn Yankees
Pretty much all of the ETFs have 'sell' signals this week. I guess that's what happens when the investment houses figured out that unemployment is still rising. They must have been confused by all of the talk about how the rate at which it was rising was decreasing.
I want to be just as irrational as most news services today and make a prediction about the direction of the market. Here goes: I'm going to predict the stock market drops today since the Yankees won last night. My one data point suggests that when the Phillies win games in the 2009 World Series, the market goes up.
I want to be just as irrational as most news services today and make a prediction about the direction of the market. Here goes: I'm going to predict the stock market drops today since the Yankees won last night. My one data point suggests that when the Phillies win games in the 2009 World Series, the market goes up.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
End of October Meltdown
The rankings have been updated. Just about everything has been rated as 'sell' and there are no 'buys' to be found, so we will sit on our hands for another week.
I just knew that buying into a commodities fund (FSESX) was bad luck. I have learned, however, that I am usually not smart enough to outthink own my algorithm, so I will just continue to do as my batcomputer says.
If I were to hazard a guess why the market is tanking, I'd say that a lot of fund managers are trying to lock in their gains for the year. For example, here at GreenestEgg, we're up 34% on the year. If I were smart, I'd just say, "go to cash!" and lock in that nice number and wait until January to begin trading again.
But I won't do that. There should be at least one sector that goes up over the next two months, and with my algorithm, I intend to find it!
Where was Matt?
I apologize for disappearing for most of this month. I had many emails asking my whereabouts. I am happy to report that all is well. Thank you for your concern. Between work (www.leonspeakers.com) and getting ready for the Six Sigma exam, I was swamped. The good news is that I am now officially an ASQ Certified Six Sigma Black Belt. Hi-Yah!
I just knew that buying into a commodities fund (FSESX) was bad luck. I have learned, however, that I am usually not smart enough to outthink own my algorithm, so I will just continue to do as my batcomputer says.
If I were to hazard a guess why the market is tanking, I'd say that a lot of fund managers are trying to lock in their gains for the year. For example, here at GreenestEgg, we're up 34% on the year. If I were smart, I'd just say, "go to cash!" and lock in that nice number and wait until January to begin trading again.
But I won't do that. There should be at least one sector that goes up over the next two months, and with my algorithm, I intend to find it!
Where was Matt?
I apologize for disappearing for most of this month. I had many emails asking my whereabouts. I am happy to report that all is well. Thank you for your concern. Between work (www.leonspeakers.com) and getting ready for the Six Sigma exam, I was swamped. The good news is that I am now officially an ASQ Certified Six Sigma Black Belt. Hi-Yah!
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Fidelity 401k Portfolio Change This Week
Based on the rankings, we sold Fidelity Select Computers (FDCPX) and bought into Fidelity Select Energy Service (FSESX). FDCPX had a 'sell' signal last week, but we didn't sell out of it because the only 'buys' were international funds and we were already invested in one international fund, Fidelity Aggressive Intl (FIVFX).
Rankings have been updated and are in the sidebar to the right.
The portfolio is up about 36% YTD (Jan 3 - Oct 14) , compared to 17% for the S&P 500.
I'm not in the mood to 'predict' what will happen with commodity prices, but all I can say with the recent GreenestEgg pick of FSESX is "here we go again." It's best not to get too emotional about this stuff.
Rankings have been updated and are in the sidebar to the right.
The portfolio is up about 36% YTD (Jan 3 - Oct 14) , compared to 17% for the S&P 500.
I'm not in the mood to 'predict' what will happen with commodity prices, but all I can say with the recent GreenestEgg pick of FSESX is "here we go again." It's best not to get too emotional about this stuff.
Why I Didn't Give My Money to the NRA
I have absolutely no idea how I've gotten on both the Michigan Democratic Party and the National Rifle Association call lists, but now I'm stuck there. I am not looking forward 2010 elections. Harassing phone calls from both sides. Ugh.
Anyway, I got this call five minutes ago and I just have to write about it. This really has nothing to do with investing, but it is interesting to think about how to make a persuasive argument, or rather, how not to make a persuasive argument.
So, like I said, the NRA calls me up and asks to listen to a pre-recorded message from their head honcho. The point (I think) that he was trying to get across was that the UN was planning on creating a treaty to ban guns all around the world. With the recent genocides in Africa, I can't say that I blame the delegates for wanting to find some sort of fix. Whether or not a UN treaty would have done much is somewhat besides the point.
The NRA was arguing that if the UN enacts a treaty banning guns then we would lose our second amendment rights here in the good ole U.S. of A. His main argument consisted of saying that:
*The Obama administration (P) is similar to the Clinton administration (Q). P=Q
*The Clinton administration (Q) always supported UN treaties (R). Q supports R
*The UN treaty (R) will ban guns (S). (S is a subset of R).
Hergo, P supports S: The Obama administration supports a ban on all guns (because a UN treaty bans guns and the Clinton administration supported UN treaties and the Obama administration is the same as the Clinton administration).
It was interesting logic, to say the least. So, after the message was over, they put a young man on the phone to ask a leading question. Nearly word for word, it went something like, "Do you think that third world dictators and Hillary Clinton should be allowed to override our second amendment rights?"
I would have asked, "When did you stop beating your wife?" but I doubt if he could have made the connection to how absurd his question was. Instead, I wanted to deflate their argument based on ideas and constitutional law.
He kept throwing out names of prominent Democrats who support the UN, expecting, somehow, that I would open up my wallet to give him the $75 he asked for after I agreed that Hillary and 3rd world dictators should not be allowed to take our second amendment rights away.
Since the NRA claims to be the greatest supporter of (at least 10% of) the Bill of Rights, I figured that I'd ask the salesperson a practical question about our Constitution. When he got done asking me for $35 (I declined his first offer of $75), I had a moment to pop the big question:
"When was the last time the Supreme Court ruled that a United Nations treaty usurped our Constitution? Aren't we a sovereign nation?"
He responded something to the effect that they wanted to make sure we never got into that situation in the first place. I pressed him a little bit further about the fact that it has never happened and could never happen (unless we dump the Declaration of Independence) and that this was just a red herring to get me to give him money for other purposes.
There are two lessons to be learned here. First off, if you’re going to argue a position use ideas, not personalities. I happen to support the second amendment. I also happen to respect Hillary Clinton. So, by deriding someone I respect, you’re also deriding me. Not a good way to make money for your cause. Quoting Eleanor Roosevelt, “Great minds discuss ideas; Average minds discuss events; Small minds discuss people.”
Second, if you’re going to ask me to part with my money, you’d better make a pretty good case for why I should want to give it to you. If you’re a building contractor, I’m not going to let you add a panic room to my new house just because you claim to have heard reports of Heffalumps and Woozles in the area.
Disclaimer: I do not own guns nor do I hunt. I do, however, eat red meat. I appreciate the second amendment and believe that it serves a very useful purpose (like preventing totalitarianism, which, by the way, has nothing to do with hunting or advocating concealed weapons in bars and churches).
Anyway, I got this call five minutes ago and I just have to write about it. This really has nothing to do with investing, but it is interesting to think about how to make a persuasive argument, or rather, how not to make a persuasive argument.
So, like I said, the NRA calls me up and asks to listen to a pre-recorded message from their head honcho. The point (I think) that he was trying to get across was that the UN was planning on creating a treaty to ban guns all around the world. With the recent genocides in Africa, I can't say that I blame the delegates for wanting to find some sort of fix. Whether or not a UN treaty would have done much is somewhat besides the point.
The NRA was arguing that if the UN enacts a treaty banning guns then we would lose our second amendment rights here in the good ole U.S. of A. His main argument consisted of saying that:
*The Obama administration (P) is similar to the Clinton administration (Q). P=Q
*The Clinton administration (Q) always supported UN treaties (R). Q supports R
*The UN treaty (R) will ban guns (S). (S is a subset of R).
Hergo, P supports S: The Obama administration supports a ban on all guns (because a UN treaty bans guns and the Clinton administration supported UN treaties and the Obama administration is the same as the Clinton administration).
It was interesting logic, to say the least. So, after the message was over, they put a young man on the phone to ask a leading question. Nearly word for word, it went something like, "Do you think that third world dictators and Hillary Clinton should be allowed to override our second amendment rights?"
I would have asked, "When did you stop beating your wife?" but I doubt if he could have made the connection to how absurd his question was. Instead, I wanted to deflate their argument based on ideas and constitutional law.
He kept throwing out names of prominent Democrats who support the UN, expecting, somehow, that I would open up my wallet to give him the $75 he asked for after I agreed that Hillary and 3rd world dictators should not be allowed to take our second amendment rights away.
Since the NRA claims to be the greatest supporter of (at least 10% of) the Bill of Rights, I figured that I'd ask the salesperson a practical question about our Constitution. When he got done asking me for $35 (I declined his first offer of $75), I had a moment to pop the big question:
"When was the last time the Supreme Court ruled that a United Nations treaty usurped our Constitution? Aren't we a sovereign nation?"
He responded something to the effect that they wanted to make sure we never got into that situation in the first place. I pressed him a little bit further about the fact that it has never happened and could never happen (unless we dump the Declaration of Independence) and that this was just a red herring to get me to give him money for other purposes.
There are two lessons to be learned here. First off, if you’re going to argue a position use ideas, not personalities. I happen to support the second amendment. I also happen to respect Hillary Clinton. So, by deriding someone I respect, you’re also deriding me. Not a good way to make money for your cause. Quoting Eleanor Roosevelt, “Great minds discuss ideas; Average minds discuss events; Small minds discuss people.”
Second, if you’re going to ask me to part with my money, you’d better make a pretty good case for why I should want to give it to you. If you’re a building contractor, I’m not going to let you add a panic room to my new house just because you claim to have heard reports of Heffalumps and Woozles in the area.
Disclaimer: I do not own guns nor do I hunt. I do, however, eat red meat. I appreciate the second amendment and believe that it serves a very useful purpose (like preventing totalitarianism, which, by the way, has nothing to do with hunting or advocating concealed weapons in bars and churches).
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